{"id":106015,"date":"2026-09-24T09:16:10","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T13:16:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.adviews.info\/news\/?p=106015"},"modified":"2026-09-24T09:16:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T13:16:10","slug":"this-years-el-nino-just-broke-a-record-months-before-its-expected-to-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.adviews.info\/news\/?p=106015","title":{"rendered":"This year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o just broke a record months before it\u2019s expected to peak"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warnings of an El Ni\u00f1o unlike any other are starting to become reality.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For months, scientists have cautioned that the natural climate pattern could grow into a record-breaking beast, releasing extraordinary amounts of heat from the ocean and fueling droughts, floods, heat waves and severe storms. Now, a traditional strength measurement of El Ni\u00f1o, called the Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index, indicates that the pattern has reached an intensity unseen in recorded history.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On September 21, the daily sea surface temperature in the region where El Ni\u00f1o develops \u2014 the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean \u2014 reached 3.08 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1991 to 2020 average. 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}}.zephr-form-disabled-div{pointer-events:none;opacity:0.8}.zephr-form-relative-container{position:relative}.zephr-form-flex-container{display:flex}.zephr-form-input-inner-button{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:5px;padding:10px 5px}.zephr-form-input-inner-text{color:var(&#8211;zephr-color-text-main);font-size:var(&#8211;zf-subtext-fontSize);font-weight:bold;font-family:var(&#8211;zf-root-fontFamily)}<br \/>\n]]&gt;<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hotter water<\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since El Ni\u00f1o emerged in June, the daily average sea surface temperature has climbed extraordinarily high in the heart of the Pacific Ocean region where El Ni\u00f1o develops. On September 21, it reached 3.08 degrees Celsius above both the 1991 to 2020 average (coarse dashed line) and the 1982 to 2010 average (fine dashed line). Prior to this month, the most extreme anomaly on record was 3.02 degrees Celsius, set by an El Ni\u00f1o in November 2015.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image \"><figcaption><span class=\"credit mobile-credit wp-credit-3179717\">ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change institute, University of Maine | Data: NOAA OISST V2.1<\/span><span class=\"credit desktop-credit wp-credit-3179716\">ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change institute, University of Maine | Data: NOAA OISST V2.1<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt has been a remarkable event,\u201d says Nathaniel Johnson, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. What\u2019s more, the El Ni\u00f1o will probably grow even stronger, Johnson says. \u201cWe\u2019re probably going to reach our peak within the next few months.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The oceanic heat released by the phenomenon could contribute to an increase in global land temperatures of about 1.2 degrees Celsius over the coming months, leading to <a href=\"https:\/\/impactlab.org\/research\/451000-at-risk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">over 450,000 additional heat-related deaths<\/a> by February 2027, researchers from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago report.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NOAA has yet to declare this event the strongest on record. It uses a rolling three-month-average anomaly, rather than the daily anomaly, in calculations of an El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s strength. And it\u2019s shifted to a new method for measuring El Ni\u00f1o strength, called the Relative Oceanic Ni\u00f1o index, which better represents the phenomenon\u2019s ability to sway weather globally. By that measurement, the current El Ni\u00f1o has yet to surpass the strength of the one in 1997 and 1998.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But that record is on track to be broken soon, the latest seasonal forecast from NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center suggests. To understand what\u2019s driving this historic El Ni\u00f1o and its potential impact, <em>Science News<\/em> spoke with Johnson, who is part of the team that produces the forecasts, and Nathan Lenssen, a climate scientist at the National Center of Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>SN:<\/em> How much of this El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s strength has been fueled by human-caused climate change?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Johnson:<\/strong> It\u2019s really an unanswered question. If we look at the historical record, we have been seeing more rapid swings between El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a [which is the other extreme phase of the El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation that generally has the opposite effect on weather patterns]. There\u2019s some evidence from simulations that increasing greenhouse gas emissions leads to more of those extreme swings. But there\u2019s not yet a scientific consensus on how climate change is impacting El Ni\u00f1o, especially an extreme El Ni\u00f1o like this one.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Lenssen:<\/strong> It\u2019s a matter of debate how much we can directly attribute to climate change. But due to the warming of the planet, there is more energy in the oceans now, and El Ni\u00f1os are when the ocean releases some of that heat into the atmosphere.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"sn-conversion rich-text rich-text--with-sidebar\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">Sponsor Message<\/p>\n<p><!-- Tag ID: sciencenews-org_leaderboard_incontent --><br \/>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>SN<\/em>: What are the most predictable and unpredictable impacts of this El Ni\u00f1o?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Johnson:<\/strong> We see a lot of the most predictable impacts in the tropical regions, as that\u2019s where El Ni\u00f1o itself develops. We\u2019ve already seen this suppressed Atlantic hurricane season and enhanced Pacific hurricane season, and we\u2019ve also seen droughts in Central America. We also tend to see droughts over northern South America and the Amazon, and a weakening of the Indian monsoon.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As we get into late fall, we typically see more impacts a little farther from the equator. For instance, over the southern part of the United States we tend to see rainier conditions, whereas it\u2019s typically drier than normal over the Pacific Northwest and warmer than average over the northern United States and Canada.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Lenssen: <\/strong>An important detail is that just because this El Ni\u00f1o is so powerful, that doesn\u2019t necessarily mean we\u2019re more confident about these impacts. The global warming of the oceans has made some of the historical mid-latitude impacts less likely, so there\u2019s a kind of twist there. For example, the El Ni\u00f1o in 2023 and 2024 didn\u2019t lead to as much wet weather in California as expected, and <a href=\"https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/clim\/39\/1\/JCLI-D-25-0227.1.xml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">some research<\/a> has shown that was due to other warming ocean patterns. That clouds the picture a little.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>SN<\/em>: How long could this El Ni\u00f1o last?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Johnson: <\/strong>El Ni\u00f1os typically last just a year, so we\u2019ll probably see it weaken after winter and be over by spring or early summer. But when we have big El Ni\u00f1o like this, we\u2019re more likely to see a shift in the following year to La Ni\u00f1a [which can also have global impacts on weather]. So that\u2019s definitely something we\u2019ll be keeping our eye on.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Lenssen:<\/strong> It\u2019s possible that this event could be followed by a double La Ni\u00f1a, which is when we get back-to-back events separated by a brief period of neutral conditions. That happened in 2016 and 2017, after the strong El Ni\u00f1o of 2014 and 2015.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>SN:<\/em> Aside from its strength, what sets this event apart from others in the past?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Johnson:<\/strong> We\u2019ve seen such a dramatic change in the equatorial Pacific Ocean over the course of the year. The transition has been very rapid, from a La Ni\u00f1a last winter to a very strong El Ni\u00f1o in less than a year. That might be the fastest transition that we\u2019ve seen.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>SN:<\/em> Is there any sort of silver lining here?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Lenssen: <\/strong>Though more work is needed to understand this, some research suggests that future El Ni\u00f1os may actually become more predictable as the world continues to warm. That could potentially give us months of additional lead time to prepare for the impacts, which would be great.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Warnings of an El Ni\u00f1o unlike any other are starting to become reality. For months, scientists have cautioned that the natural climate pattern could grow into a record-breaking beast, releasing extraordinary amounts of heat from the ocean and fueling droughts, floods, heat waves and severe storms. Now, a traditional strength measurement of El Ni\u00f1o, called [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[10],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.adviews.info\/news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106015"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.adviews.info\/news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.adviews.info\/news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adviews.info\/news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adviews.info\/news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=106015"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.adviews.info\/news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106015\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.adviews.info\/news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=106015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adviews.info\/news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=106015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adviews.info\/news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=106015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}